Windows metro will probably flop....
|
| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| WorBlux May 10, 2012 9:00 PM EDT |
so what's there really to worry about? |
| Khamul May 10, 2012 11:23 PM EDT |
I'm not so sure Metro is going to flop. For one thing, the new Facebook-using ADHD generation may very well like Metro, at least enough to not resist it when they need a new PC. Secondly, while there has been some movement away from MS on the desktop, to both Mac and Linux, it hasn't been that much. Linux is being used more in some corporate settings, and Mac has become somewhat popular in homes, but Windows still has the lion's share of the market. For both settings, and probably more for companies, there's still a lot of proprietary software out there that only works in Windows. AutoCAD, for instance, is still a Windows-only application, as is Photoshop. While there's free alternatives to both, professionals say they're not good enough yet to run businesses on them. And these are just two small examples. Worse, lots of companies still have IT departments run by MS lovers or at least people who don't know any other way, and don't really want to retrain or have to hire all-new staff. So I don't see a mass exodus to Linux any time soon, particularly not when Win8 arrives soon. One possible scenario is Vista Redux: everyone just sticks with Win7 and refuses to budge, and it looks exactly like when everyone refused to give up XP for Vista, and MS is forced to continue support for Win7. This might help Linux some, but the Vista debacle really didn't help that much, everyone just stuck with XP for the most part until 7 finally came out, and a repeat probably won't do much better. Or, if Metro bombs, MS could release Win8.5, where they keep the internals the same but dump Metro or make it an option and let people just use the regular UI (which is already there for the most part). The final scenario is that no one cares that much, and just switches to Metro when they get a new computer, and life continues as normal with MS having decreasing dominance and marketshare as mobile devices become more popular. Of course, their Windows Phones with Metro have gone over like a lead balloon (though a bunch of people, possibly shills, dispute this on Slashdot), but this doesn't mean the PC OS will do the same: iPhones have been extremely popular, but most iPhone users haven't run out and switched to Macs, they just keep using Windows. |
| caitlyn May 10, 2012 11:52 PM EDT |
Actually, I know a number of professional graphic designers and web developers who opt for GIMP over Photoshop and claim that it is more than good enough for any business use. In the case of AutoCAD, you're right, qcad has only a subset of the capabilities. It's also very much a specialty application. While I agree that there won't be any mass migration to Linux in the near future it generally isn't due to lack of applications. |
| Khamul May 11, 2012 12:20 AM EDT |
I think it depends a lot on the business and what they're doing. I was in an H&R Block a year or so ago and they were running Windows (probably XP) with OpenOffice. Their main application was running in a browser IIRC, and that was about the extent of it it would be trivial to switch them to Linux most likely, as they've already apparently weaned themselves off the need for MS Office. Other environments where they use MS Office and not much else (except browser-based stuff) are the same: they'd be good targets for migration. The problem is any time there's some Windows-only proprietary SW the company relies on for accounting or engineering (AutoCAD, ProE, etc.) design or whatever, or funky custom application that of course only runs in Windows. Some of these applications even only run in certain versions, making it difficult or impossible to upgrade away from XP, or necessitate the use of a VM. Over in today's Slashdot thread about Adobe's decision to discontinue security fixes for CS5 even though CS6 has only been out a few days, and telling people they just need to upgrade, many people claimed that GIMP/Inkscape aren't equivalent for doing desktop publishing. I don't do DTP so I don't know, but I've found GIMP just fine for my needs and found Inkscape useful too for some vector drawing I needed to do. Of course, the cost of PhotoshopCS is rather astronomical, especially if you just bought a copy 3 months ago for several thousand $ and need to upgade now or else be susceptible to this TIFF security hole. |
| tracyanne May 11, 2012 1:18 AM EDT |
In all this debate over GIMP/Inkscape/Photoshop we all tend to forget there are other graphics tools on Linux, Karbon and Krita. It's amazing that GNOME stuff gets so much mind share, even when GNOME 3 Shell is such a piece of excrement, and KDE and KDE Applications are totally ignored. |
| caitlyn May 11, 2012 2:15 AM EDT |
I agree with tracyanne. In addition, GIMP/Inkscape are not DTP apps. The best desktop publishing app for Linux is probably Scribus. |
| Fettoosh May 11, 2012 9:26 AM EDT |
Quoting:It's amazing that GNOME stuff gets so much mind share, even when GNOME 3 Shell is such a piece of excrement, and KDE and KDE Applications are totally ignored. wow @TA, you must really, really love KDE now! Not that I have anything against GNOME, but you now know how I felt a year or two ago. @Khamul, How many AutoCAD users normally are in an enterprise environment? Relatively speaking, I would say a dismal number. I sill have confidence that FOSS will over take MS software. It will take time like many of us knew, but will happen. Having FOSS applications running on Window is having a big effect. I wasn't in favor of the idea originally, but I see it is working now. Still, having a big OEM to offer Linux for the masses is a necessity. Sorry @Caitlyn, Dell is not it. You would be surprised how many young kids are picking up Linux. Just like the way Windows became popular among the young, Linux is flourishing by being different and cool. Word of mouth also is having a good impact. |
| caitlyn May 11, 2012 12:28 PM EDT |
@Fettoosh: I have no stock in Dell and generally prefer other manufacturers. If some other big OEM steps up to the plate I'd be thrilled. I have an HP netbook which came preloaded with Linux and they did a great job with it. They also dropped Linux from their consumer line the same day Windows 7 was released. I wonder how that happened.... Hmmm... Whatever you may like or dislike about Dell, when it comes to major OEMs supporting Linux, right now they are the only one doing it and they deserve credit for that. |
| JaseP May 11, 2012 2:06 PM EDT |
I'm with Caitln on this. While Dell has been a fair weathered friend to Linux, at least they've been a friend at all. |
| jdixon May 11, 2012 2:40 PM EDT |
> While Dell has been a fair weathered friend to Linux, at least they've been a friend at all. I'll grudgingly grant the point. Just don't expect any Linux specific support after the sale. They never did offer a supported update to Ununtu 10.04 from 8.04 for my Mini-9. |
| jhansonxi May 11, 2012 4:05 PM EDT |
@Khamul
Drafting is my career but it is focused mostly on electronic CAE (PCB design). I normally use Altium Designer (formerly Protel) on WinXP in VMware Player. It doesn't work on Wine but is perfectly usable via VM. The nearest F/OSS competitors are GNU EDA and Kicad, neither of which I've tried in several years. The customer determines the tools I have to use. Since there is no ubiquitous file format for PCB design like with DXF and DWG in 2D mechanical design, there are no alternatives. My mechanical design tasks are mostly related to 2D machining drawings for enclosures. These are normally based on off-the-shelf enclosures which are either die-cast or extruded aluminum. Originally I used AutoSKETCH but the customer eventually upgraded to AutoCAD. Compared to the former, the latter is a rather clunky interface requiring many more mouse-clicks and keyboard usage to accomplish a task. I don't use it enough to justify buying it so I was relying on the time-limited demo version. The customer later decided to switch to 3D, using SolidWorks by Dassault Systems after toying with Autodesk Inventor. Some work is still done on AutoCAD. Dassault Systems is part of the Intellicad consortium. They released DraftSight which is a free (not open-source) cross-platform AutoCAD clone. I hate it almost as much as AutoCAD as its interface is just as clunky with the notable exception that it doesn't use the useless Office ribbon that AutoCAD has. I switched to using it instead of AutoCAD and it meets my needs perfectly. I have used Qcad to create a basement remodeling plan for a friend. I also bought the commercial version to obtain support for ordinate dimensioning which the community version lacks. Its capabilities lie somewhere between AutoSKETCH and AutoCAD LT but it has an ugly interface. It's good enough for beginners but DraftSight is a much better option for professionals. But these are not the only options. |
| dinotrac May 11, 2012 4:08 PM EDT |
Metro looks pretty nice on mobile devices. I have a lot of trouble imagining it without a touch screen. |
| JaseP May 11, 2012 4:10 PM EDT |
@ jdixon: I never expect any Linux support after the sale. In fact, all of the machines I've ever bought from them, I wipe their installation (no matter the OS) and start fresh. I hate it that they don't make the home partition separate. That proves to me that they really don't get Linux. |
| JaseP May 11, 2012 4:13 PM EDT |
@ Dino... Nice on touchscreens?!?! To me it looks like the Partridge Family bus... |
| jhansonxi May 11, 2012 4:14 PM EDT |
I think the IE-only restriction is significant. Web-based services have already killed off Encarta and were a factor in the demise of Microsoft Money. Browsers are where the destop vs. mobile/cloud battles are being fought. HTML5 may kill off Flash and Silverlight. Metro and the associated "app store" are a threat to Valve's Steam software distribution service. |
| dinotrac May 11, 2012 4:30 PM EDT |
@JaseP - Have you tried using it? I found the Metro phones much easier to read without glasses than IOS and Android phones. They really do a nice job of pushing out the most important info. My thought was that Metro is to IOS/android what Bauhaus was to Levittown. |
| JaseP May 11, 2012 4:58 PM EDT |
The Metro "app store" is the smartest thing M$ has done in a long time. They can skim off the top of the sales, and actually get revenue from the the third parties who develop for their platform, while simultaneously reducing those parties' distribution costs. Plus, they can copy off of everyone who set up one before them... @ Dino,... No, I haven't, and likely wouldn't. |
| Khamul May 11, 2012 5:28 PM EDT |
@jhansonxi: I do some PCB design on the side, and Kicad works extremely well for me. I tried gEDA but it really didn't agree with me. However, there absolutely are standard file formats for PCBs, they're called "Gerbers". Of course, this is an output-only format, but every PCB maker on the planet uses them (and any that don't aren't worth bothering with). Of course, this won't help you if you're trying to exchange unfinished designs with other people using different software, but for the final output, Kicad makes standard Gerbers just as well as anything else. @dinotrac: I used a Metro phone for about 30 seconds before looking at Android phones. It worked well enough, but it was butt-ugly. Add to that the fact that it's not customizable at all, the app store sucks (i.e. not a lot of apps), the fact that it's by MS, and the fact that it's tanking and may very well suffer the same fate as Zune or PlaysForSure, and it's a terrible buy. I'm quite happy with my Android phone; I didn't like the regular Honeycomb on-screen keyboard included, so I downloaded the free "Hacker's Keyboard" app, and now I have full keyboard with all the symbol keys and more, and I can even set it to a Dvorak layout. Try that on iOS or WP7. Same goes for everything else on there: the dialer and contacts manager, the SMS application, everything can be replaced by 3rd-party versions, instead of being stuck with what the control freaks in Redmond or Cupertino want you to use. @JaseP: If the Metro app store is the smartest thing they've done in a long time, that's pretty sad since it's just a ripoff of everyone else's app stores. What are they, number 6 or 7 in having an app store? |
| DrGeoffrey May 11, 2012 5:43 PM EDT |
Quoting:The Metro "app store" is the smartest thing M$ has done in a long time. They can skim off the top of the sales, and actually get revenue from the the third parties who develop for their platform, while simultaneously reducing those parties' distribution costs. Plus, they can copy off of everyone who set up one before them... Not only that, but MS can address their decade old 'lack of innovative ideas" problem by stealing from fools who dare to use their app store. Never underestimate the stupidity of fanbois. |
| tracyanne May 11, 2012 5:44 PM EDT |
@FettooshQuoting:wow @TA, you must really, really love KDE now! KDE was my first love. I never hated KDE, as such, just what the developers did, and didn't do when they released KDE4. The fact that KDE4 was mostly bling and most of the useful functionality I relied on was not yet implemented, I went to GNOME which in combination with Compiz gave me almost all that functionality back. Now that KDE4 has finally given me back the functionality I depend on I'm back. I don't dislike GNOME3 shell because of lack of functionality, but because it's the wrong paradigm for pretty much anything larger than a 7 inch screen. |
| dinotrac May 11, 2012 5:50 PM EDT |
@khamul -- I'm pessimistic about Metro's ability to survive because of that puny app store. I wonder how much money Microsoft is willing to shovel in to do something about it. |
| caitlyn May 11, 2012 7:17 PM EDT |
Quoting:They never did offer a supported update to Ununtu 10.04 from 8.04 for my Mini-9.Aside from Apple, do any of the hardware vendors offer OS upgrade support? I don't remember seeing it from Toshiba or HP and certainly not from Acer/eMachines (two names, same company). Quoting:To me it looks like the Partridge Family bus...What's wrong with the Partridge Family bus? Quoting:Not only that, but MS can address their decade old 'lack of innovative ideas" problem by stealing from fools who dare to use their app store.It's more than a decade old. Microsoft's success has been made largely by buying the competition who has a good product and rebranding it (i.e.: Excel, Visio) or copying other products. |
| gus3 May 11, 2012 7:23 PM EDT |
Quoting:What's wrong with the Partridge Family bus?That depends on when your last hit of LSD was. |
| caitlyn May 11, 2012 7:26 PM EDT |
Quoting:That depends on when your last hit of LSD was.I've never done LSD at all. What's wrong with colorful? Your comment made me laugh, gus3. Back when I was in college I worked at the college radio station and had a reputation for playing things like early Tangerine Dream and a lot of progressive and psychedelic rock. Everyone assumed I was a druggie. I was actually about as straight laced a person as you could find on campus back then. I still like early Tangerine Dream :) |
| Koriel May 11, 2012 7:41 PM EDT |
@caitlyn Yeh Tangerine Dream never recovered after Christopher Franke left in my opinion, but the early stuff is still good. |
| jdixon May 12, 2012 12:01 AM EDT |
> Aside from Apple, do any of the hardware vendors offer OS upgrade support? Sure. In my experience, most vendors have drivers and directions for upgrading to a new OS. You have to provide the copy of the OS, but they do support it. It's been a while, but I believe I've upgraded Dells, HP's, and IBM's that way in the past. |
Posting in this forum is limited to members of the group: [ForumMods, SITEADMINS, MEMBERS.]
Becoming a member of LXer is easy and free. Join Us!