I'd love them to reach this goal...
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| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| caitlyn May 08, 2012 6:03 PM EDT |
I'd love for Ubuntu to reach this goal. I don't believe it will happen for a minute. The fundamental issues that make the retail marketplace unfriendly to Linux remain. Retailers make their money from selling anti-virus and Office software and other goodies that Windows users need and Linux users just don't need. Microsoft will still play hardball with anyone who tries to offer Linux in various ways that threaten the bottom line. Without changing those issues and without getting preloads into big box stores I thing Canonical has an uphill battle here. |
| tracyanne May 08, 2012 6:22 PM EDT |
Henxe Canonical and Dell offering a laptop marketed at developers. Anyone who wants to buy and use Linux can use it, but Marketing at Developers is an obvious attempt to get past Microsoft's Attack dogs. |
| caitlyn May 08, 2012 7:01 PM EDT |
Developers can't possibly account for a 5% of overall desktop market share. 0.5%, yes, but not 5%. Remember we are also talking about Ubuntu alone, not Linux overall. Linux numbers include things like Android on low end netbooks and, depending on who is doing the counting, possibly tablets as well. |
| lcafiero May 08, 2012 11:20 PM EDT |
This may sound funny coming from me, but I truly hope they make this goal. But there's a lot here -- not just the 5 percent issue (which sounds like a backpedal to The Mark's claim to have 20 million new Ubuntu users this year), but something that's essentially deeper than this. I blogged about it earlier today, but just to recap so you won't have to go read my blog, there's an issue of dealing with metrics atop the more important issue of dealing with reality. "Ship" does not mean sold. One question: If they did ship as many as they say last year, why isnt that enough revenue to be self-sustaining? And if they get to 5% next year, will that be enough revenue to be self-sustaining at present expense levels? There OEM partners are going to throw them under the bus as soon as Canonical needs to start passing costs on to OEMs instead of eating them. Hitting 5 percent and not having a sustainable business model to service that growth is classic boom/bust business. Do OEMs value Ubuntu enough to pay an equitable share of the cost of its development? So far its not clear that the answer to that is yes. And until its clearly yes, this is not a clear win. The bigger Canonical gets and the longer this drags on, while servicing red ink there ledger, the harder it will be for them to steer the ship off the rocks. [To be fair, I'm quoting Jef Spaleta in most of this, but he speaks for me.] |
| lxerguest May 09, 2012 12:21 AM EDT |
@Icafiero, I think we need to be precise about numbers of OEM installs vs number of new Ubuntu users. If the the PC's in question are mainly sold in a market where people cannot afford Windows licences and where it is common practice and legally tolerated to install pirated copies of Windows,e.g.China,then this results in negligible impact on the amounts of new Linux users. Also negligible impact on Microsoft's bottom line,since it is a "lost" market as far as profits go (although they surely appreciate that if people can only afford free,that the free be Windows).Meaning this 20 million number has more PR value than competition with the incumbent monopoly,sort of like BUG#1. |
| vainrveenr May 09, 2012 12:23 AM EDT |
Quoting:I blogged about it earlier today, but just to recap so you won't have to go read my blog, there's an issue of dealing with metrics atop the more important issue of dealing with reality. Reality indeed. Blog post is UDS: He did NOT say that . . . did he? . This hasn't yet appeared as an LXer post at the exact time of this writing. |
| lxerguest May 09, 2012 12:55 AM EDT |
@caitlyn,I agree that it would be an uphill battle for Ubuntu to interfere with Microsoft's divine right to a monopoly on PC OSes.History is riddled with the corpses of companies that attempted to achieve this. To me,it would be reasonable from the point of view of increasing consumer choice to legally mandate that OEM's be permitted to pre-install multiple-OS systems,with explicit protection under the law from direct or indirect punitive action from the company that currently has the monopoly OR third parties acting effectively to preserve the monopoly. One problem is that,as you and khamul say,OEMs get rebates from 3d parties' pre-installed cr@pware like anti-virus.They also like the upgrade treadmill enforced by MS' increasingly bloated OS versions because built-in obsolescence is their friend. Yet another problem is illustrated by what Linspire experienced when they were pre-installed in stores: the salespeople steered customers away from the Linspire PC's , saying they were kind of an inferior incompatible PC that would likely be returned, while the salespeople preferred the higher-commission machines anyway. Soooo, in light of all these unmotived parties,and compatibility/configuration issues, many have concluded that Linux best point of entry is the enterprise,where they could build up a critical mass,which would in turn resolve the other issues eventually. Now,hopefully in light of this, the issues which should be considered strategic should be clear(contribution to free office sw,contribution to kernel issues such as bios power problems/longterm support/driver project,graphics support) would take precedence overmillions spent on reinventing debian , user bling and hype. |
| jdixon May 09, 2012 10:25 AM EDT |
> But there's a lot here -- not just the 5 percent issue (which sounds like a backpedal to The Mark's claim to have 20 million new Ubuntu users this year). Not as big a backpedal as it sounds. Gartner estimates there were 89 million PC's shipped in the first quarter of this year. Assuming a simple 4x multiplier for the year (not a completely safe assumption, but probably low if anything), that gives us pretty close to 360 million PC's sold this year. 5% of 360 million is 18 million. If you assume any significant amount of free downloads, the 20 million total would seem reasonable. |
| number6x May 09, 2012 10:39 AM EDT |
I'm not sure about Ubuntu, but I can magically make Linux ship on at least 5% of PC's... Just define PC to include X86 based servers. There done. |
| lxerguest May 09, 2012 1:06 PM EDT |
@number6x,maybe that is part of what is happening,since they claim about 9 million PC shipments on 8 billion dollars of hardware in 2011. I doubt the Chinese are up to shelling out 900$ per PC,so maybe some high-priced units are mixed in with those numbers. |
| caitlyn May 15, 2012 11:25 PM EDT |
@jdixon: Gartner, unlike ABI and Forrester, doesn't count tablets or netbooks as PCs, which makes the task that much more difficult. Another way of putting it: you are saying that the sales in one quarter would have to equal roughly 75% of the total number of Linux based netbooks sold between 2007 and 2010. Sorry... I really don't see Ubuntu having those numbers. Also, downloads don't count for Gartner or anyone else. Sadly market share does not equate to percentage of installed base. If you download Ubuntu and put it on a three year old system that system was counted as a sale three years ago. It doesn't count for anything today. All market research firms base their numbers on revenue. That would mean that Ubuntu would actually need to be preloaded on at least five percent of systems. That's a really tough goal to reach. |
| jdixon May 16, 2012 9:53 AM EDT |
> I really don't see Ubuntu having those numbers. Oh, I agree with you about that. I'm merely saying that if they did manage to achieve their stated 5% goal, they would also be very close to achieving their 20 million goal. The two figures aren't that far apart. Like you, I don't think there's any way they'll do so. |
| JaseP May 16, 2012 10:23 AM EDT |
Their only chances are with set top boxes, Ubuntu on Android, and Ubuntu embedded devices (Netbooks, Tablets, Phones, Home servers, etc.). They can't hit their goal with shipping (standard) laptops, and desktops. There's just no market for them. They're squeezed out in retail spaces. They need to pay retailers for shelf space, after all (Walmart, Target, et al., make their money from the manufacturers, not from the end customers). So, unless Canonical is willing to fork out money for retail shelf space to the big distributors, there won't be a solid marketing channel for them. |
| patrickjmquinn May 16, 2012 12:55 PM EDT |
I highly doubt Canonical would be foolish enough to make that statement if they didn't believe it to been achievable. They obviously have some plan of attack otherwise i don't they they would have said it. Whether or not its possible is another issue entirely and remains to be seen. |
| Fettoosh May 16, 2012 5:47 PM EDT |
Mark my words. The way I see it developing, there is going to be a very good chance that Canonical will be collaborating with Foxconn or some other outfit, just like Apple does, to offer its own tablet and little desktops. If they don't do it soon, they won't have a chance in the future. Offering such products on their online store along with own phone/e-mail support for these customers will tremendously increase their chances of succeeding. When that happens, they can start opening their own local stores, which might trigger the interest of other stores. Good products with good OS along with such support is what users need in order to make a move away from MS. Depending on OEMs only is not going to work for them. If Canonical shows they are serious about such a move, it might send a serious message to the OEMs to either be receptive to Ubuntu, or face competition. |
| tracyanne May 16, 2012 5:59 PM EDT |
Fettoosh is right, relying on OEMs to get Ubuntu on hardware into retail won't work. |
| caitlyn May 16, 2012 6:38 PM EDT |
Sure, Patrick, companies' marketing departments never engage in hyperbole and exaggeration. If marketing says it can happen then of course it will. If you really believe what you wrote I have a very nice bridge in Brooklyn for you, somewhat used of course... |
| patrickjmquinn May 16, 2012 6:51 PM EDT |
Yes lots of companies do, they fudge numbers here and there and exaggerate in the name of marketing to make themselves look good. Canonical however have been on the slow and steady, up and up but are no where near that target in anyway. If they where to say they will be on 1-2 percent i would put it down to probably being nothing more than mere hype but a number as big as five percent sounds like they have something up their selves e.g what Fettoosh suggested. Not sure what the Brooklyn bridge reference is about but if you where suggesting i jumped from it i suggest you watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8rZWw9HE7o otherwise please elaborate. |
| jdixon May 16, 2012 6:51 PM EDT |
> I highly doubt Canonical would be foolish enough to make that statement if they didn't believe it to been achievable. How long have you been dealing with corporatons, Patrick? Corporate statements and reality have at best a tenuous relationship. Though I see Caitlyn beat me to it. |
| patrickjmquinn May 16, 2012 6:58 PM EDT |
@Jdixon I explained why it doesn't sound like hyperbole. Surprisingly I have a heavy amount of dealings with the corporate world so i can tell when something is trying to be passed off as believable and when they know something we don't, hence why i said foolish, as they would have to be thick to make a claim that grand without being able to back it up. It would do more harm then good. |
| gus3 May 16, 2012 7:32 PM EDT |
Bill Gates announced that Windows 95 "true multi-tasking, for the first time" (or words to that effect). And all the Unix and VMS programmers snorted. +1 caitlyn |
| caitlyn May 16, 2012 8:36 PM EDT |
Patrick, if you don't know the old line about selling the Brooklyn Bridge to someone you are young. What I am saying is that I don't believe Ubuntu's number for a New York minute. It's corporate hype. If you believe Canonical is different from other companies in this respect you are incredibly gullible. Is that a clearer way of putting it? |
| patrickjmquinn May 16, 2012 9:02 PM EDT |
Or you are just older, either-or. Yes thats clearer. However i am not just blindly accepting their press announcements at face value. They have been making a lot of shapes towards the mainstream lately so I'm getting a sense they are planning something big over the coming year. Sure it could be bull, but in this case they have little reason to lie without damaging their image if they have no plans to deliver. I like how you added 'in this respect' before your thinly veiled insult in an attempt to be in some way diplomatic. You are learning i see ;) |
| Khamul May 16, 2012 9:37 PM EDT |
Corporations lie all the time; they have a special word for it: "marketing". They don't worry about damaging their image; building hype is something they always try to do, and if things don't work out, they'll just quietly change plans, and since most people have such short memories it does little to their reputation. Look at all the bull that Microsoft has spewed about upcoming products, only to not deliver on their promises over and over again. |
| patrickjmquinn May 16, 2012 9:47 PM EDT |
@Khamul i guess that is true, they could just spin it off as "we shifted our focus to a smaller market audience" or something. Its something i see with vaporous companies a lot and larger companies like samsung and Microsoft but canonical aren't at that level yet i would have said. At any rate I'm going with Fettoosh on this one. |
| caitlyn May 16, 2012 10:01 PM EDT |
Quoting:Corporations lie all the time; they have a special word for it: "marketing".What he said. Besides, it's not a lie. It's a goal. They will do their best to meet it. It's just absolutely impossible in the current market. |
| tracyanne May 16, 2012 11:43 PM EDT |
Quoting:They will do their best to meet it. It's just absolutely impossible in the current market. At least, if they intend to do so via OEM installs, and don't have some other plan that involves new markets/paradigms. The Ubuntu for Android being an example of a new paradigm, that may or may not be viable for them. |
| caitlyn May 18, 2012 2:20 AM EDT |
traceyanne: I think Ubuntu is more than a day late to the device game and any realistic chance of competing with existing Android deployments. At least with Mark Shuttleworth's wealth I can't accuse them of being "a dollar short". |
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