broken quote
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| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| cr Sep 08, 2010 8:07 AM EDT |
The quote up top didn't parse right, so I went looking. On thinkexist.com, I found: “There is nothing so absurd that it cannot be believed as truth if repeated often enough.” -- William James At the risk of throwing a Godwin exception, there's also this, which seems more appropriate. “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels |
| bigg Sep 08, 2010 8:59 AM EDT |
You can't make yourself believe something, but if you hear the same thing enough times, you will act in the same way as someone who actually does believe it. |
| jacog Sep 08, 2010 9:18 AM EDT |
If you hear the MacGyver theme tune enough times you too will believe you can make a bomb out of a soda straw and a ball of twine. |
| JaseP Sep 08, 2010 10:04 AM EDT |
This belief that Linux has a 1% market share is what M$ is shooting for... Make your enemy into a straw-man, and they will see their supporters fall away,... even in the face of them growing stronger. If you look at my own situation, I have converted several users over to Linux. One block I lived on had about 14 computer users. If only me and my neighbor were counted on that block, Linux had a 14% user base. At work, I am the only person whom I know is a Linux user out of about 40 people, making Linux market penetration in my office approximately 2.5%. You can do this all over the place until your self-selecting samples are way out of control. I think that the best way to measure Linux market penetration is to do so from the internal figures your enemy uses. Apart from the "frightening the troops into a rally" arguments, M$ puts Linux market penetration somewhere between 6 and 10%. That jives with Canonical's 7+% estimate, and also some other credible estimates. If you consider that one Linux users will typically have more than one machine using Linux, then your figures are even higher. I have more than 12 computing devices running Linux in my home; 1 server, 3 HTPCs, 1 desktop machine, 2 netbooks, 2 UMPCs, 2 repurposed routers, & 2 traditional laptops, and that doesn't include my Nokia N900 web tablet/phone, 2 set-top boxes (Neuros OSDs) that are currently idle or the Android slates I intend to purchase in the next 12 mos. My point is that my Linux usage is more typical of what I think the average Linux user does,... translate their $$$ software savings into running multiple machines on Linux. That impacts M$ in terms of eroding market share. They would rather me be a 2-4 device household running their software than me having as many devices as I do running their competition. They ramp up their marketing and development based on me being a potential consumer, and when I disappoint them, it impacts their bottom line. This has a cummulative effect on both sales, (when you multiply it out over the number of users, and Linux market share growth) and return on investment. Remember, M$ lost money over the last several years, over their expectations... Netbooks, mobile devices, embeded devices, all running Linux (in some form or another) all contribute to that. OEMs are widdling down per unit costs on M$ OS contracts. M$ is seeing their installed base erode at a time when their ROI is losing muscle power. Patent wars are just another sign of this. M$ is becoming increasingly less relevant. And they know it, too. |
| tuxchick Sep 08, 2010 11:08 AM EDT |
That 1% occupies an awful lot of MS' attention. |
| caitlyn Sep 08, 2010 11:46 AM EDT |
The Goebbels quote is an urban legend. There is no legitimate attribution of that to him. It has been attributed to Lenin which may be accurate. The James quote is the original version. |
| JaseP Sep 08, 2010 12:09 PM EDT |
> That 1% occupies an awful lot of MS' attention. Doesn't it though ?!?!?! ... An awful lot of attention for something so miniscule. You'd figure 1-5% would be just enough for them to show to the DoJ that they really had competition... So they wouldn't mind it... But they seem to be bothered an awful lot by it, don't they?!?!?! |
| Scott_Ruecker Sep 08, 2010 12:18 PM EDT |
@JaseP; Its because if Linux penetration into their 'market' actually reached 5% or more (I am using 5% because it sounds about right) the number of people that would convert others to Linux would reach critical mass and by the time of their next release no one would want or need it. Or at the very least all of a sudden 20+% of their market would be permanently gone. Just my opinion..not based on any facts..just straight out of my head. |
| tuxchick Sep 08, 2010 2:58 PM EDT |
Straight out of the head of Scott...now I'm scared... |
| caitlyn Sep 08, 2010 3:11 PM EDT |
You know, if Linux is so unimportant and so insignificant why have so many Microsoft fanbois descended on my last two articles? None of them provide facts or figures or links to back their assertions. one of them answer any questions I put to them. They just repeat the same FUD over and over again in slightly revised form. If Linux is just 1% of the market why do they feel so very threatened by it? Scott, I actually believe that the real number is 8-10%. Tablets, like netbooks before them, are going to start boosting the Linux numbers this year unless you dismiss Android as other than Linux. If you use Gartner's lower figure of 18% for Linux netbook share in 2009 rather than ABI's 32% number it still works out to over 5% accounted for by Linux. Gartner has been shown to skew in favor of Microsoft before. The lowest number that could be reasonably defended is 6% and there is enough evidence to indicate that it is more than that. |
| golem Sep 08, 2010 3:44 PM EDT |
The source often quoted for the 1% figure is NetApplications http://marketshare.hitslink.com/operating-system-market-shar... I don't believe their numbers for a moment, but a lot of people take them as gospel. If anyone can point to a source at least equally credible and quotable for higher percentages, I'd be grateful. |
| caitlyn Sep 08, 2010 3:48 PM EDT |
I debunked that number thoroughly in the article. I also provided market share numbers from ABI Research (again, link in the article) that show that netbooks alone account for much more than 1%. Those sources are at least equally credible. |
| bigg Sep 08, 2010 3:53 PM EDT |
> If anyone can point to a source at least equally credible and quotable for higher percentages, I'd be grateful. Some guy on the internet said Linux has 80% market share. That's just as credible. The act of compiling a dataset (if they even bother to do that) does not in any way add credibility. > why have so many Microsoft fanbois descended on my last two articles If you are a Microsoft fanboi, you're so confused you probably don't know why you do most of what you do. I can understand being a Linux fanboi, trying to stick it to a big corporation, or trying to bring goodness to the world, or that sort of thing, but what kind of loser do you have to be if you are a fanboi of a large, for-profit corporation? Why does anyone else troll? |
| hkwint Sep 08, 2010 4:36 PM EDT |
Free Ferrari-Acer laptop for Christmas, I guess. |
| kenholmz Sep 08, 2010 4:49 PM EDT |
Indeed, the quote attributed to Joseph Goebbels is in doubt. However, he was Reich Minister of Propaganda. Propaganda has a relationship with Constructivism. One facet is the creation and sharing of meaning; another facet is influencing the shared meanings of others. Anyone ever pay for and attend est training? No, don't answer that. The same goes for rebirthing and reparenting, primal screaming and a host of other processes developed to help the human race evolve ever higher, whether for fun, profit or as a product of indigestion. I have lost both the picture and the text, but I still point to the full page ad Microsoft took out in a German magazine several years ago, the one with the cute cartoon creatures that were supposed to metaphorically represent how Linux was expected to evolve (expected by Microsoft, that is). But not really; this is what they hoped to influence other people to expect. Bill Gates and company saw a need to be concerned, even back then. They started up the propaganda machine and hoped their brand of constructivism would win the day. How 1984 of them. The content of today's reports depends on who controls the reporting. Sometimes the reports have veracity and integrity... |
| caitlyn Sep 08, 2010 6:26 PM EDT |
@golem: Bruce Byfield wrote a piece for Datamation on just how dubious the Net Applications numbers are. Please read: http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/osrc/article.php/3818696/Li... |
| Scott_Ruecker Sep 08, 2010 8:15 PM EDT |
Gee Carla, you make it sound as if my head is full of undisclosed crimes and many yet to be tried scandalous endeavors...wait let me rephrase that..;-) |
| tuxchick Sep 08, 2010 11:05 PM EDT |
Well, Scott...well..... |
| Scott_Ruecker Sep 09, 2010 2:53 AM EDT |
In my defense, your not in trouble if you don't get caught.. And that its better to ask for forgiveness than permission.. |
| JaseP Sep 09, 2010 10:08 AM EDT |
> And that its better to ask for forgiveness than permission.. That depends on what, exactly, you are asking forgiveness for doing... |
| golem Sep 09, 2010 5:35 PM EDT |
@caitlyn: Thanks. Your article is well written and helpful. Going back to a presentation by Ballmer, he stated that Windows has a market share of 83% in the US. I believe that was on the occasion of the release of Windows 7. If as you say Linux and OS/X each have about 8%, that would be quite consistent with Ballmer's 83% figure for Windows. NetApplications used to show statistics for the US market. The market share shown for Windows trended down smoothly over a period of years, finally reaching 87% IIRC before they switched to the present method of estimating worldwide market share. If the downtrend continued as before, it might well have reached 83% by now. |
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