Here is why

Story: Microsoft is The Big Loser Among the Big 3Total Replies: 18
Author Content
jsusanka

Apr 25, 2009
10:31 PM EDT
Viruses Instability Spyware Trojans Adware

Still the same old cruff from them and finally people are realizing ubuntu, centos, redhat, fedora, etc etc are all stable and continue to churn updates regularly and on a timely schedule. You just can't say that about microsoft.

Been using jaunty since a beta and I tell you a linux beta is much better than the final gold product from microsoft.

It still amazes me the cruff users put up with from microsoft when there are these wonderful distributions around that users could enjoy and actually rely on their computers to work and keep their computers for a longer time. - Sigh -

tracyanne

Apr 26, 2009
1:48 AM EDT
Well I think that they are learning slowly, One of my Little old Ladies just introduced me to a new convert, today. On her recommendation, I'm about to upgrade another computer to Linux.
Alterax

Apr 26, 2009
4:31 AM EDT
With Microsoft, it looks like the cows have finally come home to roost. You can't spend twenty-some-odd years cutting the throats of your competition, bullying the vendors, ignoring the demands of the courts and financially pillaging your customers. Not if you expect to have any loyalty whatsoever.

Now GNU/Linux is a mature product--at least mature enough that non-techies can use it without issue as a desktop environment. And the hardware made for computing is moving away from heavy-power to lightweight and green--a total 180 from Microsoft's development goals from Vista.

Add to that the downturn in the economy leading to people wanting to extend the life of their machines rather than splurge on a new machine to run the new O.S.

Microsoft's had a major blunder in the public eye with Vista, and it's earned a reputation for being a cutthroat monopoly with unsavory business practices. Vista showed just how bloated and expensive the software can be--and every home user that uses it knows about it being unreliable and obscure.

I've gotten to the point where I keep a couple of Ubuntu or Linux Mint LiveCDs with me in the glove compartment. (Debian and the importance of Free Software comes in later; baby steps) Often I get asked about it at the university, but it's getting to the point now where I'm getting more and more referrals from non-students and non-IT people--factory workers, elderly couples, nurses aides, office workers, even fuel station attendants.

Word's spreading. And in my own perverse way, I have Redmond to thank for it.
tracyanne

Apr 26, 2009
5:14 AM EDT
Quoting:With Microsoft, it looks like the cows have finally come home to roost.


I thought thems was Chickens.
TxtEdMacs

Apr 26, 2009
8:02 AM EDT
While I hate to throw cold water on the party, the actual financial performance of MS should not give that much comfort to those that hope for either its demise or reform. Please note that the server portion has increased its gross and net. In addition, it is the fastest growing portion of MS's product line. Moreover, MS is still an obscenely profitable operation. Note too that MS focuses on corporate, hence, while long term its modest losses may impact its overall profitability it is NOT at danger's door.

[Unfortunately, quite serious tags attached]
jsusanka

Apr 26, 2009
9:06 AM EDT
TxtEd - yes it isn't that bad but I believe it is a sign. The server portion is growing because that is what's growing in the industry. We are going to a service oriented model and getting away from the desktop of the 80's model.

The other day I was watching the biography channel. They had the biography of Ben and Jerry ice cream.

This happened to them when they expanded and starting to get into grocery stores etc:

"That's when Ben & Jerry's hit a wall. Called to Bean Town on an emergency meeting with distributors, Ben Cohen learned that premium ice cream brand Häagen-Dazs was threatening to pull its business from distributors unless they signed an agreement precluding them from selling other premium brands. Of course, most distributors couldn't afford to stop carrying Häagen-Dazs, which in Boston was outselling Ben & Jerry's by more than four to one."

On the show they said this was illegal but never took it to court. They put an 800 number on theirs cartons and fought them in the public and actually got more sales out of the problem.

This is what microsoft has done from the start and are still doing this day.

I just find this remarkable.

gus3

Apr 26, 2009
10:54 AM EDT
MS maintains outside investments to reduce their tax figures during the good times, and cushion (or eliminate) the losses during the bad times.

Their financials have about as much validity as Hollywood financials.
hkwint

Apr 26, 2009
11:58 AM EDT
Is it correct the amount of 'cash' Microsoft has decreased from $60 to $15 billion dollars? I read that somewhere.

Loss of cash of the company where I work(ed) (they bought American stocks, ahum) is the reason they didn't continue my contract and I'm unemployed at home starting this Thursday.

I believe about 1800 Microsoft employers were sent away as well; though that's peanuts compared to the 90k still working there.
Sander_Marechal

Apr 26, 2009
4:31 PM EDT
Quoting:Is it correct the amount of 'cash' Microsoft has decreased from $60 to $15 billion dollars?


Yes, that's true. That was 2008 news. Now put that bit of information together with this:

Quoting:MS maintains outside investments to reduce their tax figures during the good times, and cushion (or eliminate) the losses during the bad times.


And then combine with the news about Microsoft's 32% loss. What does that tell you?

Simple. Microsoft's cushions have dried up. They have spent years using creative bookkeeping to hide the the losses of e.g. MSN and XBox inside their Windows and Office profits. It looked good on paper but cost real money. Now Windows and Office are suffering and with only a few billion in the bank they can no longer hide their losses. Oops.

Predictions? Remember that Microsoft is a stock pyramid. Developers and managers are all paid in stock for bonuses and what not. They have been trying to reduce that a bit lately by buying back some, but it's not enough by far. And what do stock pyramids do when profits tumble? They come crashing down because everyone starts selling.

I predict a world of trouble for Microsoft.
hkwint

Apr 26, 2009
5:29 PM EDT
Quoting:And what do stock pyramids do when profits tumble? They come crashing down because everyone starts selling.


Certainly agree to that, but then why are these stocks still that high?

Quoting:Simple. Microsoft's cushions have dried up.


Does someone know: Did they invest their money in stocks of other American companies, like Bill Gates (and my company) did? If so, it's easy to see why their cushions have dried up. If not, then why's the money gone? Hmm, doesn't matter all that much, I'm not good at bookkeeping and finding out where certain amounts of money went or came from. Probably better leave it to others.
Sander_Marechal

Apr 26, 2009
6:01 PM EDT
Quoting:Certainly agree to that, but then why are these stocks still that high?


It's a waiting game. A lot of stock is owned by MS employees. They know that when they start selling MS will be in trouble. So, they prefer not to sell. They're just waiting for someone else to start selling first, after which they will sell soon too or watch their stock (and possibly retirement) become worthless.

Quoting:If not, then why's the money gone?


Funding loss-leaders, buying back stock, paying dividend, marketing, politics, pushing OOXML, etcetera. They could afford all this and still grow their capital back in the early 90's, but not anymore. Back in the 90's when MS said it made a million in Windows profit they did have a million profit. Spend 700K on the above things and your capital grows 300K. Nowadays Windows is in the "Platform division" or something. When Windows makes a million in profit it first needs to cover the losses of MSN live and XBox and after that only 500K is left. So when you spend 700K on the avove things again then you turn a 200K real loss, even though your reported profits are the same.
Bob_Robertson

Apr 26, 2009
6:30 PM EDT
> paying dividend

Yep. When Microsoft was finally forced to pay their "dividend", I knew disaster was not long to follow.
TxtEdMacs

Apr 26, 2009
7:11 PM EDT
If I remember correctly, XBox was still making money. However, I suspect pricing pressures could negate the net to break even to a loss. [My guess, no inside information despite my being one of MS's biggest proponents by singing the praises of Vista Mega Extreme edition. The absolute best at what it does, without a doubt.] What worries me is that the server edition is the fastest growing MS product line where one might presume some intellect was being applied prior to signing the purchase orders. I tend to presume rationality, hence, I would think those with the most knowledge and experience would be conferred with for their expertise before committing to a high cost solution. But what do I know.
Sander_Marechal

Apr 26, 2009
7:26 PM EDT
IIRC XBox was always a big loss to MS. It wasn't until the 360 that it started making a bit of profit.

Quoting:What worries me is that the server edition is the fastest growing MS product line where one might presume some intellect was being applied prior to signing the purchase orders.


My guess it's not a rise, just a peak. It's not "Server edition", it's "Servers & Tools". SQL Server 2008 came out so I imagine they make quite a profit off companies upgrading to that. SQL Server profits fall under Tools here. It's quite possible that Windows Server sales declined but that the decline is hidden in the one-time SQL Server boost.
TxtEdMacs

Apr 27, 2009
4:50 PM EDT
If the profit rise was based upon new SQL Server licenses, Oracle's acquiring of MySQL gives the latter a weapon to counter further growth. If MySQL's language were revised to implement an Oracle PL/SQL (dropping most of the cruft) work alike, then they can beat MS to a bloody pulp. Moreover, Oracle might use the compatibility to encourage migration to the real thing. Therefore, at worse Oracle has a loss leader or a real potential profit center, with either option causing MS a great deal of grief.

But fear not, MS will counter attack effectively by releasing their magnum opus Vista version "Sensational!" [with Extreme Prejudiced] aka Windows 9. I tell you it's a no lose proposition, money will flow like a swollen stream into MS's coffers. Its stock valuation will sky rocket. So there unbelievers, you comeuppance awaits you. Oh, did I mention that the contract on Oracle will be executed?
gus3

Apr 27, 2009
5:01 PM EDT
"Executed," by lethal code injection.
TxtEdMacs

Apr 27, 2009
5:48 PM EDT
Quoting:"Executed," by lethal code injection.
No, more like an accidental death brought on by excess exuberance when carrying cash to the bank, with a fatal misstep being the apparent cause.

All standard Mafia contract with the usual disclaimers and with the proportional refunds in case of imperfect hit.
jacog

Apr 28, 2009
4:51 AM EDT
I have always felt that Microsoft is actually rather bad at making business decisions. Wasn't it them that claimed the internet was just a fad and got into the market late? They were the ones scoffing at Linux too.

They mostly have survived by being the one holding the biggest gun. In the Darwinian sense though, the theory is that for a species to survive, it needs to be able to adapt to change. I think they have come to that point again.
Bob_Robertson

Apr 28, 2009
10:05 AM EDT
> Wasn't it them that claimed the internet was just a fad and got into the market late?

Yes, that was them.

The 'Net was "privatized" around Jan1993. By 1995, ISPs were everywhere and getting very big very fast. I know, I was working at one that was on the Win95 Betatest program.

Web browsing was wide spread and well established, Netscape had been available on Win3 and *nix for years by that point.

Win95 didn't have a browser, or even a TCP/IP stack. Just NetBUI. I was in negotiations with a company to provide a package deal, POPmail client/server, telnet server (really!), web server, FTP server, IP stack and a few other very interesting things, on 4 floppies for Win95. It really was a great product, I'm sorry I cannot remember even their name now. Ah, there it is, "Ipswitch".

That's when Bill Gates' book came out, I think it was timed to promote Windows, and just like Win95 there wasn't a word about "internet" in it.

But about 6 months after launch, Win95 began shipping with IP and Internet Explorer, Outlook, etc.

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