Youch, Rob So smart and yet so wrong. Must hurt.
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| Author | Content |
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| dinotrac Jul 17, 2007 1:19 PM EDT |
OK - This article didn't just border on goofy, it went for Goofy, the whole Disney-dog thing. As bad as it was there were a couple of kernels of truth. FOSS folks are incredibly, ridiculously, counter-productively obsessed with Microsoft. Microsoft-Novell, anyone? I halfway believe (at least, I think it's only halfway) that Microsoft could most effectively damage FOSS by devising a strategy of triggering FOSSfolk knee jerks. It may even be true that FOSS momentum is slowing. Around the turn of the century (Man, I love writing that!!) FOSS momentum was un-freakin' believable. IBM embraces FOSS, Netscape goes free, Oracle releases Linux products, SAP releases Linux products, perl, apache, on and on and on. You can't maintain that kind of momentum very long. But where Rob actually looks like somebody with an inkling of understanding was here: Quoting: OEMs really can’t help much with open source. The Google model is the right one, and that suggests to do open source and Linux right, you need to internalize much of the effort and, in this case, the OEMs aren’t much help. You see, with FOSS, you aren't at the mercy of a vendor or its VARs to fix problems. You aren't screwed if they refuse to acknowledge them. You get the code. You get the internet. A model of hiring your own talent to apply FOSS in ways that have more to do with developing a competitive edge for your business than enriching your vendors works pretty darned well and leaves those OEMs out of the loop. For them, especially, I can imagine the momentum slowing. |
| Sander_Marechal Jul 17, 2007 1:48 PM EDT |
I still get a distinct feeling from reading that article that Enderle blames RMS/FOSS from robbing him of the opportunity to become an IT millionaire. "Whine, whine, whine. Early IT made everyone a millionaire but when it was my turn to cash, RMS forced everyone to work for free. Whine, whine, whine". By the way, I disagree that momentum is slowing down. I'd say it's picking up. I think we're at the beginning of a new hausse. One that will outpace the hausse we saw at the turn of the century. |
| jdixon Jul 17, 2007 1:52 PM EDT |
> It may even be true that FOSS momentum is slowing. I don't think it's getting the hype it was at the turn of the century, so there's undoubtedly a perception that the momentum is slowing. However, adoption levels are still increasing, and the rate of adoption doesn't seem to have slowed down significantly, if at all. It's just that the results aren't being trumpeted the way the used to be, which is all to the good. Does anyone think Microsoft would be making these "interoperability" deals if they weren't being squeezed, and squeezed hard, by FOSS? Even without Dell's recent turnabout concerning Linux on the consumer desktop, Microsoft's actions alone would be all the evidence you need that Linux and FOSS adoption continues apace. I do expect things to slow down eventually. Even at my most optimistic, I doubt Linux can expect to get more than a 50% desktop penetration and 75% server penetration. Of course, that leaves a lot of room still to grow. |
| dinotrac Jul 17, 2007 1:57 PM EDT |
>Enderle blames RMS/FOSS from robbing him of the opportunity to become an IT millionaire Maybe, but it's misplaced. A few months back, I went to a really nice little event at University of Illinois at Chicago called Flourish. Hmmmm. Still need to write about what that was like. At any rate... One of my sharpest memories was Bright Young Entreprenuer who would have fit right in with the wild-eyed throng 7-8 years ago. The theme he hit hardest of all is that free software is a no-brainer for startup companies. It may not be easy to get rich selling free software, but free software can make it much easier to get rich doing something else. >I disagree that momentum is slowing down Don't know. Linux has become mainstream, and quite a lot of free software with it. It's just so hard to be a wild-eyed revolutionary once you've joined the establishment. Not that I haven't tried...;0) |
| Aladdin_Sane Jul 17, 2007 2:04 PM EDT |
Marketing message: percentages. Back in 99 you'd see "Linux adoption rate increases 100%." (From 1% to 2% they would bury somewhere deeper down.) Today you see "Linux adoption rate increases 40%." (From 20% to 25% they fail to mention.) (Given an equal time period, say a year.) So it is easy to say the rate of adoption is decreasing; it always will, by that definition. But also wrong. hausse: Never heard that word. Google says "(hos'-say) [French.] The same as ENHANCED." |
| jrm Jul 17, 2007 2:15 PM EDT |
The premise of the story is that the momentum of Linux has slowed. If Enderle's premise is not self-evident, then it's his job to justify it. He doesn't even attempt to do that. No matter how logical his arguments, if the premise is untrue then his conclusion is unproven. FUD is FUD. |
| tuxchick Jul 17, 2007 2:17 PM EDT |
Don't try to make sense out of nonsense. The last time RE stumbled over a fact he killed it just to make sure it would never bother him again. |
| Sander_Marechal Jul 17, 2007 2:20 PM EDT |
Sorry, I assumed hausse was an international term (since it sure isn't Dutch). Hausse means the (overstressed) height-point of an economic cycle. Sort of like an "economic bubble" :-) Here's a nice image on (dutch) wikipedia that shows it well: http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afbeelding:Conjunctuur.png The dotted line is the economic trend; We're always rising on average. The solid line is the economic growth. It has it's ups and downs. A hausse is when the predicted economic growth is above the peak of such a cyclic pattern (think dotcom bubble). Anyway, notice that while the low point is below the high point, the trend is still going up solidly. I think that's exactly what is happening to Linux and FOSS. the 2000's were a high point and the last few years were a low point. We're now crawling out of it and moving to the next high point. It's plain and standard economics. |
| vainrveenr Jul 17, 2007 2:22 PM EDT |
There is even a Wikipedia on Enderle, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Enderle, so his history goes well back in time. A quote from this history: Quoting: According to the “Apple Death Knell Counter” at macobserver.com, Enderle has predicted the demise of the Macintosh more times since 1995 than any other industry observer — predictions which (as of 2007) have yet to come to pass(from http://www.macobserver.com/appledeathknell/index.shtml) Can we can expect not only his typical anti-FOSS FUD, but an upcoming Enderle piece as well on Apple Inc's "Losing Momentum" over its iPhone, iPod, i-X, ... i-etcetera ?? |
| montezuma Jul 17, 2007 2:34 PM EDT |
Don't forget that Microsoft wrote the first Apple OS: http://www.macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/tech_p... I don't read Enderle's patently slanted drivel anymore... |
| jezuch Jul 17, 2007 4:40 PM EDT |
Quoting:Hausse means the (overstressed) height-point of an economic cycle. Ohhhhhhh, you mean "hossa", which can be encountered in Poland :) |
| devnet Jul 17, 2007 7:39 PM EDT |
The last time a factual thought struck RE, he was in the hospital for 3 weeks. All kidding aside...the momentum I feel behind Linux and Open Source is 500-600% more now than it ever was when I first got involved with it in the mid to late nineties...and even more so from when I first started contributing back in 2001-2. I feel that it is at it's peak right now and that it continues to peak each month. Of course, when you are at the top, there is a longer way to go down :/ Still, being involved in a variety of communities...Ubuntu, Gnome, KDE, PCLinuxOS, etc...especially the community aspects of these communities...I get the notion that things are more popular and moving forward more today than they were previously. I trust my observation over questions I ask people via email like old RE probably did to get his OEM's and Executive response. He may have even picked up the phone and called a few people. The bottom line is that he only questioned people he knows...and he doesn't know everybody. A small sampling of the kinds of people RE knows isn't an indicator...of that I'm certain. |
| tuxchick Jul 17, 2007 7:44 PM EDT |
I can't imagine anyone, other than bill collectors, returning Enderle's calls. |
| gus3 Jul 18, 2007 12:08 AM EDT |
Quoting:It's just so hard to be a wild-eyed revolutionary once you've joined the establishment. I dunno, you should see some of the looks I get in the factory. Every one of the shirts I wear is a geek shirt, three of them have Tux, and maybe once a month someone actually dares to ask me what it's all about. The easy part of the answer is that I can point to the proprietary, bug-riddled, virus- and trojan-prone software all around the shop, and use it as a starting point. "None of my 6 systems at home have anti-virus software" always gets an incredulous look. |
| Libervis Jul 18, 2007 12:23 AM EDT |
When I was reading that article I thought "this guy is completely delusional". It's just so out of touch with reality it's incredible. Dell is expanding their desktop GNU/Linux line and HP is about to follow. At the same time we hear more and more stories about even hardcore windows users and fans giving GNU/Linux (mostly Ubuntu) a spin and liking it. And then Enderle comes to the party and says that it's slowing down? It's a true WTF moment. I guess it depends on perception, but I don't feel it is slowing down. I think it's just the opposite. And the next boom seems slated for the desktop, the real home desktop market. So there may be no as much hype right now, but perhaps this is because things have went from only talking about GNU/Linux to no end to actually seriously growing it all over. 2006, 2007 etc. are years when it finally gets serious, when the previous hype actually materializes in reality. |
| dinotrac Jul 18, 2007 3:09 AM EDT |
> I guess it depends on perception, but I don't feel it is slowing down. I think it's just the opposite. And the next boom seems slated for the desktop, the real home desktop market. Outside of physics, momentum is a funny word anyway. A large and slow-moving object has more momentum than a small speed demon if you use the term correctly. In that sense, the momentum of linux definitely hasn't slowed -- there's tons more of it than there used to be and its growing all the time. As has already been noted, growth momentum (an odd concept) is either slowing or growing, depending on how you look at it. In market share, it slows because it's easier to go from 1 to 2 than it is from 10 to 20. For that matter, it's often easier to go from 1 to 2 than it is to go from 31 to 32 because of where that places you in the market. Free software is also at a conceptual rough spot right now. It's in. It's real. It's being used. It's no longer the "next big thing". People understand it better - and its limitations. It's also reaching deeper into corporate IT, and that is, by its nature, a slower grind than rushing into a vacuum, ie, new systems. For example -- A business that depends on a large in-house Oracle database application can't just install PostgreSQL and go happily along it's way. They will have x number of Oracle-certified engineers who will resist the change. Those engineers are also the folks most likely to be tasked with finding out whether or not PostgreSQL can do the job they need with the performance they need on the hardware they can get. Then, they will have to port and test, test, test, test, as you don't lightly move bread-and-butter applications. The cost and risk (you ALWAYS introduce new bugs when porting) may scotch the whole thing. Eventually, however, a major re-write is needed, extra capacity is required, new people are hired, a budget is reduced, etc, etc, etc. |
| jacog Jul 18, 2007 3:44 AM EDT |
How about "upward mobility" ? |
| jsusanka Jul 18, 2007 4:39 AM EDT |
"I can't imagine anyone, other than bill collectors, returning Enderle's calls." TC you kill me - now you owe me coffee because of what you made me spit out when I cracked up from this line. I don't read Enderle's stuff but you are funny. |
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