Terrified? Over? Loser?
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| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| SFN Oct 11, 2005 12:38 PM EDT |
Saying that the "war is over" and that MS has "already lost" the business market is terribly shortsighted. Now, I definitely want that to be the case but declaring Microsoft the loser at this stage of the game is like saying the guy in the hockey mask is dead because you just shot him four times. We all know how that always turns out. |
| tadelste Oct 11, 2005 1:37 PM EDT |
That is one point of view. Another point of view we could consider is inevitability. For example, is it inevitable that the use of fossil fuels on this planet will ultimately have to cease? That's a long term inevitable outcome. Anyone who doesn't agree with that, hasn't looked at the writings of Thomas Robert Malthius. I suppose an exception does exist. The population of humans on the planet could fall to 100 million due to a pandemic or a rapid onset of another ice age. Malthian law still works with regard to Microsoft. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometric ratio, while subsistence increases only in arithmetic ratio. Accordingly, there is a strong and constantly operating check on population because of the difficulty of subsistence. The price of food will tend to increase, owing to the necessity of employing additional land of inferior quality to increase production. Proved through study of historical records. You can say land or you can say computers, infrastructure and communications. In the shorter term, technology will spread globally in subsisting areas and the rules of the game have to change significantly. The rules wil change enough enough that Microsoft cannot continue. The uptake in the Internet at the consumer level and the mass conversion from mainframe style architectures to LANs is long over. The industry business cycle has some phases to consider: start-up, growth, downturn and consolidation. That cycle for companies like Microsoft is pretty much over. They don't have enough diversity in the portfolio to last. They can be replaced. Like the railroad companies, Microsoft doesn't know the business in which it exists. If the railroad companies knew they were in the transportation business, Fedex, UPS, DHL wouldn't exist. Maybe airlines would be named Missouri Pacific instead of Northwestern. Microsoft has had two products - Windows and Office. Every other business in which they have engaged has not produced a significant income stream. They haven't solved the problem and for sure X-Box and embedded Windows have not experienced an unfettered track. In those latter markets they demonstrate their ineptitude as business people. I guess they could quit pretending that they are not in the practice of law and lobbying. If they went into those fields full time, they might do pretty well. They would have to rename their company to Microfacists Inc. Oh, I'm sorry, they already did. |
| AnonymousCoward Oct 12, 2005 4:23 PM EDT |
tadelste: is the abandonment of "fossil" fuels truly inevitable? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin |
| tadelste Oct 12, 2005 8:40 PM EDT |
AC: I have seen the Abiogenic petroleum hypothesis before. I like the one that said the earth collided with a large mass of tar which wiped out the dinasaurs and soaked into the earth's crust. If we're talking about fossil fuels, we'd better come up with another source of energy. Would you like to bet on the Abiogenic theory? Reminds me of a Red Fox story when he was stoped trying to go through the metal detectors at an airport. The sounds went off and the inspectors pulled out a key chains with every trype of religious symbol you might think existed. So, Red Fox's son says, "I thought you was a Baptist." Red says, on the ground I am, but up there I don't take any chances. I'd say the odds are in favor of us running out of fossil fuels inevitably. |
| SFN Oct 13, 2005 6:33 AM EDT |
"I'd say the odds are in favor of us running out of fossil fuels inevitably." Well, unless Earth's Grinding Halt Alarm goes off first. |
| tadelste Oct 13, 2005 7:26 AM EDT |
Do we have one of those? |
| SFN Oct 13, 2005 7:33 AM EDT |
Well, we do but it was built by Microsoft. So...... |
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