Questions Left Unanswered
|
| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| helios May 19, 2005 2:26 PM EDT |
OK...It is fairly well established that there are many people who do not have the high profile of Mark Shuttlesworth that are devoting an unselfish amount of time and talent to the Linux Desktop. From the blood and guts code guys to the distro developers and the PR guys...everyone is basically out to achieve the same results. Motives may vary sure, but all of us involved in this effort want to see Linux as a viable alternative to the Windows Operating System. Here is the rub as I see it, and believe me, I put this out here in hope of either being corrected or enlightened. There are currently about 380 active Linux distributions available for download/installation. The average computer user (read: Windows user) could not name you 3. Hell, I have talked to some people that think that Linux is illegal! ...that Microsoft could sue them if they put it on their computers and besides, everyone knows "you can not remove an operating system from a computer...sheesh." Honest to God...I have been told this by more than one person...and one of them was a grade school principal. The only reason some people could possibly name 3 Linux distros is because of their corporate profile and advertisement. Cases in point are Suse, Red Hat and Mandriva. So friends, what is the logical evolution here...bloody distro wars until only a few are left and a consolidation occurs?...Will the likes of Suse, Xandros and Red Hat swallow everyone else up and then begin to feed on themselves? I do not believe I have heard Mr. Shuttlesworth address this and probably because it is way too early in the game to be thinking of it...but I like to think ahead. Now I want to know what you think. helios |
| alc May 20, 2005 1:31 AM EDT |
Suse,Red Hat and Mandriva may take a bigger share of the market than the home brewed versions,but I don't see disto wars happening any time soon.It seems that alot of people have their own idea of what a distro should do,so these people are going to continue putting their ideas out there.They may not grow into the MS killer,but they have their place. Those of us that use Linux know that it is not only a viable alternative, but a better one.Here in the U.S.,Microsoft is firmly entrenched and not likely to lose alot of market share any time soon.But it seems from everything I've been reading,that Linux is doing much better in other countries,and I think this worries Microsoft more than anything else.One thing for sure...interesting times ahead. |
| hkwint May 20, 2005 4:32 AM EDT |
I think in the corporate world, Helios has some point, since one of the biggest questions for 'groups' migrating to Linux is: where do I get support?
There aren't that many companies offering support, but indeed, Suse (Novell), Mandriva and Red Hat do (And IBM which uses other distro's). Suse, Red Hat and Mandriva are swallowing up all government / corporate tenders at the moment.
But he's forgetting some other issues (Sure, he mentioned other countries outside US): I think Red Flag and Asianux might get bigger than Red Hat and Suse, because there's a bigger potential for Linux in Asia, and probably, that could also be where much of the feature developers are coming from. That way, Asian Linux distro's might get better than the current ones.
Also, Mandriva, Red Hat and Suse are aimed at making money, and there will always be free (gratis) distro's (like Debian, Gentoo, FreeBSD etc.).
Also, there will always be people unsatisfied with the current distro's, going to develop new ones with new ideas for the Desktop, for example SymphonyOS (which was covered a few times at LXer).
Some other people, especially hobbyists, just want to be different, so use an exotic distro to distinguish themselves.
So I think Red Hat and Suse won't swallow up everything, because there are too many wishes from individuals / groups (Furthermore, the number of Linux-users are groing, so also the number of situations Linux is used for is going to grow), as well as people who are unsatisfied and think they can do better.
I mean, if Red Hat and Suse were going to swallow up all distro's in the feature, they could already have done so, but instead of that, the number of distro's just keeps groing, and I don't see that changing in the near feature. But that's just my guess. |
| salparadise May 20, 2005 9:22 AM EDT |
Assorted ramblings. Linux is gaining ground big style - if the press releases are to be believed - in quite a few countries with two possible exceptions. America and the US. Where there has been a greater resistance. (No surprises here really, the two governments are very chummy and Billy knows both Bush and Bliar. Plus all three are very much wrapped up in the "let's scare everyone into submission with tales and lies" nonsense). Microsoft are NOT going to sit by and let their current world domination slip away without a big fight. They are gathering too much information from folks all over the planet and calling it "surveys" or "registration" or "please let windows report back about the crash you just had" and making altogether too much money to just let Linux take it all away from them. Part of the problem is that 99% of people either don't care how their computer works or are just plain terrified of the thing. And as a percentage of global population, computer owners are still a small minority, despite the illusions to the contrary. After 8-10 years of Microsoft, people are now conditioned to expect poor service, crashes, virus's trojans and software that costs. If you tell them you can have a pc and not have that sort of nonsense they simply don't believe you, or think "yeah, IF I spend the next 5 years learning how it all works". Because Linux comes from the geek community it has, to those who know a little of it, a strong geeky association. A lot of people don't want to become geeks in order use their computers. Even if that is a mistaken idea. I work in fairly political environment in that it's staffed by people who are involved in working for/overseeing and handing out cash to, charities, with ideas of social justice and fairness and so on. Despite this they are M$ drones across the board. Even those who know there's a Linux box in the building and may have heard of it, show no interest. Yet there is Fair Trade coffee in the kitchen. The tech support guy who sits next to me gets the same steady stream of phone calls each day to go to someones desk and "sort out Outlook,IE,etc etc etc". In Windows land it seems to be about getting through the day as best as possible hoping nothing too bad happens. There's no time for quality judgements, no room for change, just a slavish mono-minded repetative routine because the whole network and all it's different versions of this that program takes most of the available time just to keep the 30 - 60 users able to work. And then there's the hugely expensive contract they have with a support company who oversees their connection, servers etc. They are "microsoft gold certified" which means (minions of the crappy software empire) charging in excess of £50,000 per year to guarantee no viruses via email. So the average user doesn't care, is too busy or just too damned cynical to come rushing to Linux for shelter. As WIndows entered the home via the workplace so Linux will do the same. As Linux comes to be used in schools, small companies and local government in order to save money so it will become normal for people to use. (A lot of people deeply resent the computers existence in our lives and hate out dependance on them). But they may pick up on the reliability IF the installations are done right. So, I would suggest it is up to those of us who fix, install and maintain pc's to be the biggest vehicle to spread the awareness of Linux. Though it can be like climbing up a greased telegraph pole at times. Sadly, even when corruption and stupidity and evil is pointed out to people they have a tendency to go right on consuming from the same companies, to go right on voting for the same idiot politicians, to carry on buying from companies they know are screwing the environment into the ground. So, if you're waiting for the day when humanity wakes up in numbers and comes a running I fear you'll die of old age first. There is a ground swell of awareness and disillusionment with how things are, but a lot of people are still dumb consumers who don't care or who are just too tired and overwhelmed to believe in change. The names on the outside of the box will sort themselves out in much the same way as all such things do. Popular brands will come and go, little names become big and big ones disappear. This is just natural market flow. (If such a market could be called "natural"). I think Ubuntu will do well and Debian too. The "big corporate" distros will gradually (buy up the smaller ones as a way of investing in other countries/communities) and be consumed by bigger companies and then the dreaded multi-nationals. The market (for market read investment capital and LARGE companies), who worhsip only the profit line will abandon Microsoft and buy themselves some "Linux action" just as soon as it starts to become a commercial viability, but they'll shrink wrap it and seal it up and bundle it and it will cost money to get whatever "can't live without" codec or plugin is the flavour of the month and "to cover the cost of packaging and shipping". And you won't be able to have it without being fully registered. I wouldn't put it past the US gov' to intervene on Microsoft's behalf on the world market by putting pressure on individual governments to not go with Linux. I think it likely this will achieve the opposite effect of what is desired. It sort of doesn't matter if each continent/political grouping of nations ends up with it's own version of Linux because the inter-operability (that Microsoft keep banging on about then doing nothing to achieve) is already there. The file types are the same whether you're working with Dragon Linux (the Thai armies own distro) through to tiny distro's like Freeduc (French educational linux). What will tip the scales is when the likes of Adobe, Propellorheads, Sonic Foundry, Macromedia and so on wake up and start porting their flagship applications to Linux. But even that will change Linux. These applications won't be released as Open Source and there'll be those who will decry them as a result. |
| alc May 20, 2005 9:25 AM EDT |
Something that I would add to that is the fact that no-one is selling computers with Linux on them.When's the last time you went into a comp USA or Best Buy and saw anything but Windows machines.Untill this happens,Linux is going to be a hard sell.Most people have never installed Windows,much less Linux.Someone like Dell/HP etc. needs to have preconfigured computers that work right out of the box before we see Linux on the desktop in a bigger way.Does anyone think thats going to happen anytime soon? |
| salparadise May 20, 2005 9:54 AM EDT |
Yes. Within 12 months I would think. |
| helios May 20, 2005 6:07 PM EDT |
So, I would suggest it is up to those of us who fix, install and maintain pc's to be the biggest vehicle to spread the awareness of Linux. Though it can be like climbing up a greased telegraph pole at times. You sir, are a prophet...a seer of wisdom, one who knows what the future holds. Let me take a look at your stock portfolio. LOL In everything you said, I either cheered or simply nodded my head in agreement. I don't think it is corny at all to consider myself a Linux soldier...and our new website http://www.Lobby4Linux.com will testify to that. Now don't go running there now for Wisdom of the Sage. It is only a frame with much work to do. I only have it published so my web master and I can text message and get things working. Thanks to Devnet who pointed out some glaring mistakes. I am sure many more exist, but patience...all will be fixed and is being fixed as we speak. Devnet, You sir are a gentleman and a scholar...aint many of us left. 3 months ago I didn't know LXer existed. I cannot go a day without 4-5 checkins to see who is going to make me a smarter, wiser Linux user. helios |
Posting in this forum is limited to members of the group: [ForumMods, SITEADMINS, MEMBERS.]
Becoming a member of LXer is easy and free. Join Us!