Spinning out of control?
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| Author | Content |
|---|---|
| AnonymousCoward Mar 02, 2005 4:18 AM EDT |
FireFox's growth slows to 15% per month and the media acts like it's dead in the water. What? Let's project this ahead: 15% of 5.7% roughly == .85%, small enough to mostly ignore cumulative effects, so: Jan: 5.7%, Feb 6.55%, Mar 7.4%, Apr 8.25%, May 10.1%, June 10.95%. Real Life(tm) ain't that linear, there will be surges and sags as FireFox and its competitors have special releases and security crises and the like, but if FireFox goes on restricting the rest of the browser "market" by roughly 5% every six months then MSIE will be noticeably under 80% by year's end, and under 70% by end 2006. If a critical-mass effect begins to kick in (I'm guessing that various people will have "take it seriously" benchmarks set at 10% (June), 20% (June 2006), 25% (~ end 2006), 1/3 (~ 3Q 2007) and 1/2 of the "market" share), that will steadily accelerate Firefox adoption too. The best part of it is that as more web servers start supplying standard HTML and CSS, they will work with more web browsers; Firefox will go "icebreaker" for web browsers like Konqueror and Safari as Linux and OS X are already doing for alternative operating systems like the BSDs. |
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