Is Novell the Avis of Open Source?

Posted by thevarguy on Nov 12, 2007 4:33 PM EDT
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Whenever I hear chatter about Novell, I think of Avis — the Number 2 rental car company that proudly declares “We try harder” as it pursues the market leader (Hertz, er, Red Hat). Hmmm. Is 2008 the year that all of Novell’s hard work in the open source market finally pushes the company into the fast lane? UBS, the Wall Street analyst firm seems to think so. But I'm not so sure. Here's why.

Whenever I hear chatter about Novell, I think of Avis — the Number 2 rental car company that proudly declares “We try harder” as it pursues the market leader (Hertz, er, Red Hat). Hmmm. Is 2008 the year that all of Novell’s hard work in the open source market finally pushes the company into the fast lane? UBS, the Wall Street analyst firm seems to think so. But I'm not so sure.

First, let’s start with the good news. UBS has upgraded Novell shares to a “buy” from a “neutral” rating, based on an analysis of three key factors (cash on hand, legacy software sales and Novell’s newer business units). Barron’s mentioned the upgrade today. And I have been quick to note that Novell is successfully pushing its desktop SuSE Linux business deeper into China.

Now, for the challenges.

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